arch_8ngel

Seeking Alpha can occasionally stir up some interesting tickers, but you have to keep in mind they are essentially a bunch of amateur bloggers posing as stock experts. Take everything they say with a generous heaping of salt. To the part in bold, though...there are waves and waves of companies right now suspending dividends for the duration of the crisis. Almost all dividends should be seen as disposable at this point.

We are well stocked for cooking at home, but I have made a point of getting lunch take out from the local Chinese restaurant and ordering from the hole in the wall pizza place that takes too long under normal circumstances. (By far best pizza in town though so don't want to see them close)

I am very familiar with the issue. They have parity when it comes to cyber warfare, and they potentially have supersonic cruise missiles which force a certain standoff distance for our aircraft carriers. Other than that, it isn't particularly close. So it is a stretch to say that we are playing catch up to them in terms of any kind of military hardware.

They were done on another tournament season as well, since I have one that is my trophy copy of RC Pro Am (other games were Adventure Island and something else I don't recall without digging it out of the closet...) Your trophy is from the second season they were made. Ours were a total surprise.

This is a bit of a stretch...

How overweight are you planning to go? I think you are making a less educated gamble than you realize, and there are probably better ways to get on more downside.

I don't trade after hours, but bid ask spread can get pretty wide if you do. Edit -- keep in mind that even a major gold bug like Harry Browne didn't call for more than 25 percent allocation, and that is way higher than most would recommend

SGOL, IAU, etc tend strongly to track with spot rate. They are basically structured in a way that if you owned enough of them you can force them to trade you physical gold for the shares, which in turn means the prices have to track the portion of the commodity they imply, plus some small premium. You can't buy physical gold at spot, either, unless you are transacting obscene quantities.

I am a strong believer that gold shouldn't be more than 5% of your portfolio. It doesn't "do" anything, really, but it is pretty and if you have one ounce rounds they make an awesome ringing sound when you flip them. I keep a little SGOL as well. In terms of ETFs, there are some interesting portfolio concepts on Portfolio Analyzer (ranging from 3 fund up to 7 or 8 depending on how much you want to weight specific things).

That IS tax payment being delayed. Though I read you still have to file an extension to get that date.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/see-who-s-eligible-coronavirus-checks-senate-gop-releases-details-n1164311?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma&fbclid=IwAR3zhzs7WITARR3OYZtQyIFmF2CwpLwtyuJ6QweDsNBur4-Ywc99Xrwhxms&fbclid=IwAR3v6p9Oc0tZDEwHqcDd9dUXdyJ4Unt61cL_XMLM2FQyBbq5W04gidwhoq4 Latest on helicopter-money plans. Looks like the senate plan is going to be income-tested against 2018 tax returns. (i.e. the returns we filed in 2019 for tax-year 2018) For individuals max payout ($1200) is proposed up to $75k income, fully phased out at $99k. For MFJ max payout ($2400) is proposed up to $150k income, fully phased out at $198k. For people with little-to-no income tax liability (in 2018) but at least $2500 qualifying income (in 2018) payments are reduced to $600 individual and $1200 MFJ. In all cases it is +$500 per kid, flat, no apparent income qualifiers. Not clear from the article which income number they are using (AGI vs MAGI). Frankly, Mnuchen's plan sounded a lot easier to implement, and the proportion of people over the limit that would be getting payments is relatively small anyway AND those people are most likely to be able to use it as discretionary income or investments, both of which "need" cash infusion at the moment. (and that is before you get into the "gotcha's" of using last year's taxes where people have been married since that time)

So how about Gamestop trying to declare themselves "essential" so they can stay open in places that are closing all non-essential stores during the pandemic? Seems like a self-declaration that they know they won't survive this downturn.

Happened twice with 'W'. First time was just a child tax credit, issued mid year ($800 per kid). Second time was in the great recession, that was structured like this but only one payout that happened versus two sequential called for here.

They will state all of that up front if it is the case. Most likely is it is literally "helicopter money" to every man woman and child, given the urgency of the situation.

There wasn't last time, that I recall. Basically it is easier for them to just pay everyone than worry about disqualifiers. That said, they COULD make it an advance on a tax credit that they could reclaim from higher earners at tax time next year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-trump-wants-payments-of-1000-for-adults-500-for-kids.html Looks like they're proposing to go full-bore with the money thrown from helicopters... Two tranches, 6 weeks apart, $1000/adult and $500/child, both times.

Yeah, but legitimate "we have a vaccine" news is a year away, at least, once you consider safety-testing (already started) being followed by efficacy-testing. In the interim, hopefully there will be some more good news about the various anti-virals being effective, and maybe alleviation of supply-chain concerns on ventilators.

I guess Cheesecake Factory is well positioned to maintain some amount of sales via takeout or delivery... though the stores themselves aren't exactly optimally located for anything like that. Kohl's is tempting as hell, though. They're at their lowest level since 1998, and unlike other large retailers (JC Penny, Macy's, Sears) they weren't already on the verge of actual collapse.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fords-stock-falls-as-dividend-likely-to-be-suspended-analyst-says-2020-03-19 Obviously once we're on the other side of this, they'll want to get a dividend of some kind back into play for the reasons you mentioned. But short-term, it looks like it is toast. Probably the first wave of many slashed or entirely suspended dividends.

This is definitely the most extreme possible scenario of "paradox of thrift" that we will see in our lifetimes.

Do you count the SSI Gold Box AD&D games? They were built around a significant amount of tactical combat. Most memorable element being the behavior of Lighting Bolt -- could ricochet when used normally -- became a huge area-of-effect when used under water.

Yeah. The temporary impact of this thing is potentially going to be so far beyond the Great Recession, where people were laid off gradually and at least had SOME ability to try and find other work at a lower wage to make ends meet. Total shutdown of food-service/bars and all sorts of store/mall cutbacks, along with the massive wave of cancellations in the travel industry is going to be devastating to a lot of people. Long term impact may "work out" if things can pick back up quickly enough -- but even a month of missed paychecks will absolutely ruin a lot of people's entire year, financially. And unlike the Great Recession, where those who could afford it could go out and try and keep the wheels of commerce greased by spending...they're stuck at home this time, too. (still making money because a lot of professionals can work from home, at least temporarily, but not SPENDING beyond the initial grocery/supply rush)

If anything, I'd expect it to swing in the other direction, with people at home finally having time to list/sell their stuff and needing the money if they aren't able to work...

Yeah, I don't think overloading them with screen time is good, either. My kid's school district had packets that were distributed or available for home printing, and the teachers have been using Class Dojo to provide their own custom timeline for using the packets. My daughter's teacher has supplemented that with some video recording where she talks the kids through the lessons, so that they get at least a little bit of normalcy from seeing that she's still around. (also they have a bearded dragon as a class pet that they get to see at the teacher's house) Definitely no perfect way to navigate this for kids that age when the parents are also working, even when that work is remote/at-home.

There are wealthier districts that give kids iPads that early. Even my relatively-low-income district gives kids Chromebooks by 3rd or 4th grade.